We hope this finds you safe and healthy and would like to wish you and your loved ones Happy Passover!

If you also speak Hebrew, we invite you to watch the recroding of the latest webinar we held, exactly about the topics in this review. The webinar included a review of the Israeli market in Hebrew and a review of the global markets in English.

2019 was a vindication year for the traditional asset management industry and asset allocators like us. Many skeptics sat on the sidelines in cash and missed the best year for returns we have had in a very long time. Our clients enjoyed excellent returns in both absolute and relative basis.

While 2017 was low positive and 2018 was negative, 2019 was very positive and brought the three-year returns comfortably into the annual targeted return range. This is the nature of the beast - market returns simply do not go in straight lines.

Our eyes now turn to 2020. As always, the crystal ball has its limitations and across our team we have slightly differing views for 2020. However, the consensus view is to remain faithful to our asset allocation principles.

I have just returned from spending two days with Pimco in London at their annual conference for investors. Pimco is one of the largest bond specialist firms in the world with an incredible depth of resources. The audience consisted of investment professionals from Europe, and it was apparent that everyone had come to hear not only Pimco’s macro-economic view, but also to clarify just how concerned we, as investors,  should be and what changes we should be making, if any, in the current circumstances.

It was an exceptionally high-level discussion and I will try to share some of the messages with you below. An interesting aspect of the investment world is how different personalities gravitate towards different asset classes. Optimists gravitate towards equities, pessimists to bonds and those with perhaps a tad too much hubris towards hedge funds. Pimco is a firm specializing in bonds. They ooze caution through the air vents. So whilst they were professionally non-committal about whether we are heading towards a cyclical change and/or recession, or not, they did an excellent job trying to identify whether there are any relevant signals now. The bottom line is no panic signals but elevated levels of caution looking into 2020.

When markets are going up strongly as they did in Q1 2019, no one asks tough questions and most investors focus on other aspects of their lives. Strong markets make our jobs as wealth managers easier. The main question being posed on a daily basis is should we sell down and take profits or remain loyal to our long-term plans and beliefs. This is a valid and serious question, which is worth the debate. Last year, January 2018 was a strong month and the rest of the year was negative, particularly February and the 4^th quarter. One has to ask the question if the gains from Q1 2019 are likely to be given up later in the year or not.

Those who have made Aliya from the UK have experienced first-hand the effect of the sterling’s decline over the past decade. From a peak of 8.7 shekel to the pound in the summer of 2007, the rate fell by almost half to its low point in the winter of 2016 and has recovered only slightly to trade at 4.8 this February.

Whilst the Brexit vote has undoubtedly been a factor in this development, the fall in the pound predates the 2016 referendum and is more a factor of the global financial crisis and the remarkable strength of the Israeli economy since then. Whilst this latter point is a source of pride for all Zionists, it creates significant challenges for those who moved to Israel or those thinking of Aliya. A disruptive Brexit or a hard-left new government could cause a collapse in the pound, which would have a significant impact on pension values.