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Brief Market Insight

Brief Market Insight

Why the Corona is good for asset allocators?

It has been seven weeks since the start of Pesach and 11 weeks since most western world countries started the 100 case count. I have a screenshot on my phone from early March showing the worldwide case count at 200,000 with 8,000 deceased. As I write to you now, it is 5.5 million confirmed cases with 350,000 deceased, and that is with social distancing of varying degrees across most parts of the world. Can you imagine the virus numbers if we did not take any protective measures?

Real estate investing in the time of Coronavirus

Real estate investing in the time of Coronavirus

The Coronavirus effect...

Renting a property without paying for it is no longer illegal. McDonald’s and Burger King in the UK are just two examples of a ‘blue chip’ tenant refusing to pay or looking to reduce their quarterly rent payments. 

Legal protection for commercial and residential tenants in a number of countries has already been enacted. Due to Covid-19, these tenants are not legally in breach of contract by not paying their rent for 6 months, even if they have the assets to do so. 

In other words - some of the most basic premises of investing in real estate no longer hold true

2019 Markets Review

2019 Markets Review

2019 summary & 2020 predictions

2019 was a vindication year for the traditional asset management industry and asset allocators like us. Many skeptics sat on the sidelines in cash and missed the best year for returns we have had in a very long time. Our clients enjoyed excellent returns in both absolute and relative basis.

While 2017 was low positive and 2018 was negative, 2019 was very positive and brought the three-year returns comfortably into the annual targeted return range. This is the nature of the beast - market returns simply do not go in straight lines.

Our eyes now turn to 2020. As always, the crystal ball has its limitations and across our team we have slightly differing views for 2020. However, the consensus view is to remain faithful to our asset allocation principles.

2019 Half Year Review

2019 Half Year Review

2019 half year summary & predictions

I have just returned from spending two days with Pimco in London at their annual conference for investors. Pimco is one of the largest bond specialist firms in the world with an incredible depth of resources. The audience consisted of investment professionals from Europe, and it was apparent that everyone had come to hear not only Pimco’s macro-economic view, but also to clarify just how concerned we, as investors,  should be and what changes we should be making, if any, in the current circumstances.

It was an exceptionally high-level discussion and I will try to share some of the messages with you below. An interesting aspect of the investment world is how different personalities gravitate towards different asset classes. Optimists gravitate towards equities, pessimists to bonds and those with perhaps a tad too much hubris towards hedge funds. Pimco is a firm specializing in bonds. They ooze caution through the air vents. So whilst they were professionally non-committal about whether we are heading towards a cyclical change and/or recession, or not, they did an excellent job trying to identify whether there are any relevant signals now. The bottom line is no panic signals but elevated levels of caution looking into 2020.